Tue, Oct 30, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Dallas Stars 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 02 | 214 | 26 | 422 |
| MTL | 010 | 09 | 116 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:49DALEsa LindellPPAssists: Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 7:24DALMiro HeiskanenGWGAssists: Devin Shore, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 2:58MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–1
- P3 9:27DALDevin ShoreSHAssists: Radek Faksa · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 17:23DALAlexander RadulovENAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:29DALAlexander Radulov: Interference2 min
- P1 11:07DALTyler Seguin: Holding2 min
- P2 0:10MTLPhillip Danault: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:48DALJohn Klingberg: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 5:19MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:14MTLJonathan Drouin: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:22MTLMax Domi: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:49DALEsa Lindell: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:12MTLMax Domi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:12MTLMax Domi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:12DALRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39MTLJoel Armia: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:02DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Faksa – Dickinson3:19
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin7:07
xG 0.38–0.23 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Janmark3:07
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Radulov – Dowling – Seguin2:38
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Honka8:24
xG 0.49–0.04 (92%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen2:23
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Methot – Klingberg2:03
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – Drouin – Domi8:35
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Byron – Armia – Kotkaniemi5:02
xG 0.26–0.10 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault9:51
xG 0.53–0.43 (55%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Peca – Hudon5:30
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Benn12:42
xG 1.07–0.53 (67%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Ouellet – Mete12:23
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Alzner – Reilly12:16
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).