Tue, Oct 30, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 211 | 111 | 08 | 330 |
| TBL | 214 | 321 | 39 | 844 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01NJDMiles WoodAssists: Sami Vatanen, Mirco Mueller · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 5:04NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Miles Wood · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 7:30TBLBraydon CoburnAssists: Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 13:30TBLBraydon CoburnAssists: Cedric Paquette, Adam Erne · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 0:31TBLBrayden PointAssists: Yanni Gourde, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 6:33TBLNikita KucherovPPGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 8:08TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.21 xG2–5
- P2 16:47NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Will Butcher · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 3:40TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Brayden Point, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–6
- P3 5:02TBLNikita KucherovAssists: J.T. Miller, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–7
- P3 5:51TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–8
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:07TBLBraydon Coburn: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 4:39NJDBlake Coleman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:39NJDBlake Coleman: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:12NJDTravis Zajac: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:01TBLSlater Koekkoek: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:32TBLCedric Paquette: Interference2 min
- P3 6:32NJDKevin Rooney: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:32TBLCedric Paquette: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Johansson – Wood3:41
xG 0.10–0.03 (77%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Coleman – Noesen – Zacha4:26
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Johansson – Dea – Zacha3:29
xG 0.05–0.04 (56%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Wood6:36
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Mueller15:38
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Butcher11:50
xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Greene – Severson14:47
xG 0.49–0.86 (36%)attempts 17–20goals 0–3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Gourde – Point11:48
xG 0.69–0.22 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 4–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Miller11:40
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne7:43
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli10:26
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – McDonagh16:42
xG 0.83–0.45 (65%)attempts 18–14goals 3–1
- Coburn – Sergachev14:55
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 20–12goals 2–0
- Girardi – Koekkoek14:08
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).