Tue, Oct 30, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Ottawa Senators 1, Arizona Coyotes 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 112 | 08 | 126 |
| ARI | 314 | 18 | 113 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:09ARIAlex GalchenyukUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 6:33ARIBrad RichardsonGWGAssists: Michael Grabner, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 15:30ARIDerek StepanSHAssists: Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.00 xG0–3
- P2 8:20OTTAlex FormentonAssists: Chris Wideman, Chris Tierney · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 8:42ARIRichard PanikUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 10:25ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:27ARIRichard Panik: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:30ARIAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min
- P2 15:53ARIJason Demers: Holding2 min
- P3 8:43OTTMark Stone: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:43ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:14OTTDylan DeMelo: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:19OTTDylan DeMelo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:19ARIMichael Grabner: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Tierney – Formenton10:00
xG 0.55–0.14 (79%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Paajarvi – McCormick5:44
xG 0.32–0.34 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Boedker – Duchene – White2:39
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Duchene – Stone – Dzingel7:12
xG 0.26–0.95 (21%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Chabot7:26
xG 0.69–0.30 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Wideman – Lajoie3:48
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Lajoie7:37
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Grabner – Hinostroza8:40
xG 1.02–0.30 (77%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Cousins – Strome – Crouse8:15
xG 0.52–0.49 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Panik – Galchenyuk – Keller11:50
xG 0.52–0.63 (45%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Stepan – Perlini – Fischer9:00
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Hjalmarsson4:22
xG 0.88–0.06 (94%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Oesterle10:43
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin2:20
xG 0.15–0.22 (40%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).