Fri, Nov 2, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Arizona Coyotes 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 117 | 224 | 01 | 351 |
| ARI | 312 | 07 | 05 | 11 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:07ARIBrad RichardsonSHAssists: Alex Goligoski · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 15:57ARIBrendan PerliniPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 16:52ARINick CousinsAssists: Dylan Strome, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 10:34CARJordan MartinookAssists: Justin Faulk, Lucas Wallmark · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 13:42CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 14:22CARJordan StaalAssists: Brock McGinn, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- OT 1:17ARIMichael GrabnerGWGAssists: Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:59ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:41CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:38ARIBrendan Perlini: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:36CARMicheal Ferland: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:11ARILawson Crouse: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:44ARIJordan Oesterle: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 17:04CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:47ARIAlex Galchenyuk: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:32ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galchenyuk won the faceoff against Wallmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Martinook – Wallmark6:03
xG 0.90–0.19 (82%)attempts 20–2goals 1–0
- Ferland – Aho – Svechnikov6:45
xG 0.64–0.08 (89%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Zykov – Foegele – Roy3:47
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Aho2:46
xG 0.15–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin15:03
xG 0.99–0.74 (57%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
- Pesce – van Riemsdyk8:54
xG 0.59–0.35 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Faulk – Pesce3:39
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Strome – Crouse3:23
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Stepan – Cousins – Fischer3:04
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Panik – Galchenyuk – Keller9:20
xG 0.15–0.33 (31%)attempts 1–12goals 0–1
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza7:00
xG 0.05–0.23 (17%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Oesterle7:52
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Lyubushkin7:08
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson6:29
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).