Sat, Nov 3, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 25 | 16 | 04 | 315 |
| CGY | 19 | 112 | 320 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:46CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 13:57CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Tip-in, 0.36 xG1–1
- P1 19:33CHIJan RuttaAssists: Andreas Martinsen, Alexandre Fortin · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 12:41CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Henri Jokiharju · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 18:26CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Travis Hamonic, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 13:59CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 15:05CGYMichael FrolikGWGAssists: Sam Bennett, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 19:01CGYMikael BacklundENAssists: Elias Lindholm · Backhand, 0.57 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:14CHIDuncan Keith: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P1 2:14CHIDuncan Keith: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 12:46CGYMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:36CGYTravis Hamonic: Holding2 min
- P2 1:16CGYDavid Rittich: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:13CHIAndreas Martinsen: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:15CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Kampf – Kahun6:08
xG 0.33–0.14 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kruger – Martinsen – Fortin7:36
xG 0.45–0.27 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Anisimov – Kane – Schmaltz11:05
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Toews – Saad – DeBrincat10:43
xG 0.52–1.11 (32%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Jokiharju9:43
xG 0.72–0.21 (77%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
- Gustafsson – Rutta2:00
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Rutta3:12
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan13:26
xG 1.36–0.22 (86%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Neal – Backlund – Tkachuk8:07
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Frolik – Bennett – Ryan4:39
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk4:51
xG 0.16–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie13:50
xG 1.81–0.59 (75%)attempts 25–8goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Andersson7:10
xG 0.34–0.07 (82%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Välimäki5:50
xG 0.15–0.20 (44%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).