Sat, Nov 3, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Philadelphia Flyers 3, San Jose Sharks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 29 | 19 | 07 | 00 | 325 |
| SJS | 116 | 110 | 18 | 11 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:37PHINolan PatrickAssists: Travis Konecny, Oskar Lindblom · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 3:15SJSTimo MeierAssists: Tomas Hertl, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 16:40PHIJordan WealAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Dale Weise · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 10:35SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Kevin Labanc, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 19:30PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 15:03SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Kevin Labanc, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 0:13SJSTimo MeierGWGAssists: Logan Couture · Other, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:35PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:11SJSTimo Meier: Holding2 min
- P2 2:47SJSErik Karlsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:58PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:15PHIRadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:44SJSRourke Chartier: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Patrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Weise – Weal10:01
xG 0.67–0.08 (89%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick11:06
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Laughton – Aube-Kubel2:09
xG 0.01–0.11 (8%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny12:36
xG 0.25–0.65 (28%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Sanheim9:01
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Hagg – Provorov17:16
xG 0.69–0.70 (50%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Folin15:55
xG 0.40–0.46 (46%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Hertl – Meier8:41
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Sorensen – Goodrow – Karlsson2:28
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc4:38
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Chartier – Labanc3:23
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Braun3:35
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic2:11
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun12:14
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).