Sun, Nov 4, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 1, New York Rangers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 015 | 015 | 110 | 140 |
| NYR | 05 | 210 | 17 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:41NYRNeal PionkAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 1:00NYRJimmy VeseyGWGAssists: Brett Howden, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 6:07BUFConor ShearyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 18:09NYRJimmy VeseyENAssists: Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:57NYRBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:26NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:44NYRCody McLeod: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:53NYRBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:40BUFZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Larsson – Girgensons9:41
xG 0.46–0.11 (80%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Okposo – Rodrigues10:47
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Sheary – Reinhart – Mittelstadt8:54
xG 0.68–0.52 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Pominville – Skinner – Eichel12:25
xG 0.61–0.87 (41%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen10:34
xG 0.78–0.55 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Scandella14:10
xG 0.80–0.58 (58%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- McCabe – Nelson5:07
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Zibanejad – Namestnikov9:38
xG 0.82–0.57 (59%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich2:13
xG 0.19–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fast – Vesey – Howden5:10
xG 0.13–0.15 (46%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Kreider – Hayes – Buchnevich6:37
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Pionk11:44
xG 0.81–0.33 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Skjei2:43
xG 0.01–0.02 (43%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Smith – DeAngelo2:46
xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).