Mon, Nov 5, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 214 | 213 | 112 | 539 |
| PIT | 111 | 014 | 011 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24NJDWill ButcherAssists: Joey Anderson, Jean-Sebastien Dea · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 9:24PITJamie OleksiakAssists: Olli Maatta, Jake Guentzel · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 12:27NJDBrian BoyleGWGAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Jean-Sebastien Dea · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 7:38NJDBrian BoylePPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Will Butcher · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 19:40NJDBrian BoylePPAssists: Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 0:19NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Damon Severson, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:09PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:55NJDTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:31PITOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:44NJDJoey Anderson: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:08PITPatric Hornqvist: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:08NJDMirco Mueller: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:08PITJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:27PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min
- P3 18:20NJDBrian Boyle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hischier12:21
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Zajac – Johansson – Wood12:08
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Stafford – Coleman – Seney9:37
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Boyle – Dea – Anderson6:56
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Mueller16:10
xG 0.85–0.52 (62%)attempts 24–18goals 0–1
- Greene – Severson13:19
xG 0.38–0.56 (41%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Butcher12:31
xG 0.47–0.66 (41%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Grant – Rust3:47
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin3:07
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin7:09
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Cullen – Sheahan – Sprong2:22
xG 0.22–0.19 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Oleksiak5:46
xG 0.37–0.02 (95%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin2:15
xG 0.19–0.03 (86%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Riikola8:17
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).