Mon, Nov 5, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Edmonton Oilers 2, Washington Capitals 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 112 | 110 | 011 | 233 |
| WSH | 211 | 210 | 02 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:44WSHJakub VranaAssists: Devante Smith-Pelly, Travis Boyd · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 5:44WSHDevante Smith-PellyAssists: Travis Boyd · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 10:24EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 8:11WSHT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 10:41EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Adam Larsson, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 13:09WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.07 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:13WSHMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:04WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:03EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:38WSHDevante Smith-Pelly: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:24EDMAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:57WSHNicklas Backstrom: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Strome – Puljujarvi10:37
xG 0.75–0.29 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Rieder – Draisaitl12:22
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – McDavid3:00
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Caggiula12:38
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Benning9:24
xG 0.56–0.14 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Russell – Nurse19:01
xG 0.77–0.65 (54%)attempts 24–17goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom17:56
xG 1.01–1.19 (46%)attempts 24–17goals 1–3
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Jaskin12:32
xG 0.54–0.10 (84%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson2:01
xG 0.16–0.11 (58%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Boyd – Vrana7:31
xG 0.22–0.26 (45%)attempts 3–9goals 2–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Stephenson12:49
xG 0.54–0.75 (42%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny15:22
xG 0.69–0.61 (53%)attempts 21–17goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Orlov17:39
xG 0.68–0.90 (43%)attempts 13–23goals 1–1
- Djoos – Bowey12:47
xG 0.49–0.75 (39%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).