Wed, Nov 7, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 4, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 216 | 113 | 15 | 434 |
| COL | 010 | 17 | 08 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:39NSHColton SissonsAssists: Nick Bonino, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 17:21NSHColton SissonsGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Nick Bonino · Slap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 7:08COLMatt CalvertPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 19:57NSHColton SissonsPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Kevin Fiala · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 17:06NSHRyan HartmanENAssists: Nick Bonino, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:21NSHRoman Josi: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:02COLNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P2 6:17NSHColton Sissons: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:22COLVladislav Kamenev: Holding2 min
- P2 19:23COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:57NSHAnthony Bitetto: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Sissons – Hartman10:10
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Jarnkrok9:47
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Fiala12:11
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Salomaki – Gaudreau7:09
xG 0.17–0.33 (34%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm16:45
xG 0.83–0.31 (73%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis14:57
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Weber – Bitetto11:00
xG 0.04–0.39 (10%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Kerfoot – Dries9:19
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Bourque – Dano – Kamenev5:21
xG 0.14–0.03 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto9:36
xG 0.11–0.20 (35%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen17:53
xG 0.77–1.21 (39%)attempts 16–25goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard5:21
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 13–3goals 0–1
- Cole – Nemeth5:54
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Barrie – Zadorov13:55
xG 0.35–0.22 (62%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).