Fri, Nov 9, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New York Rangers 2, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 011 | 212 | 05 | 02 | 230 |
| DET | 06 | 012 | 210 | 13 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:53NYRKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 18:33NYRNeal PionkPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 1:46DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 17:58DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Frans Nielsen, Niklas Kronwall · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 4:54DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Mike Green · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:25DETMike Green: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:01DETDarren Helm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:31NYRBrady Skjei: Holding2 min
- P2 16:48DETJacob de la Rose: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 18:11NYRPavel Buchnevich: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Namestnikov – Buchnevich11:32
xG 0.73–0.31 (70%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Lettieri – Andersson – Chytil5:47
xG 0.35–0.19 (66%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Spooner – Hayes11:53
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Fast – Vesey – Howden13:12
xG 0.66–1.00 (40%)attempts 7–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – DeAngelo15:25
xG 0.79–0.52 (60%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Staal – Pionk15:38
xG 0.65–0.42 (60%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Smith12:21
xG 0.66–0.61 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Glendening – Bertuzzi10:18
xG 0.67–0.37 (64%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Helm – Mantha – Larkin12:10
xG 0.37–0.16 (69%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Frk – Athanasiou2:17
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Nyquist – de la Rose – Rasmussen6:41
xG 0.08–0.20 (29%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Cholowski10:35
xG 1.08–0.56 (66%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- DeKeyser – Cholowski5:07
xG 0.13–0.14 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Green – Cholowski2:11
xG 0.04–0.11 (26%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).