Sat, Nov 10, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Boston Bruins 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 020 | 110 | 011 | 141 |
| BOS | 16 | 216 | 212 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:12BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: David Pastrnak · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 5:46BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Matt Grzelcyk · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 10:34BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–3
- P2 19:30TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 14:04BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 14:30BOSJoakim NordstromAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:48BOSSteven Kampfer: Interference2 min
- P2 0:41TORZach Hyman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:09TORMartin Marincin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:28BOSBrandon Carlo: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:28TORKasperi Kapanen: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 17:29BOSSteven Kampfer: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Kapanen2:03
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Kapanen7:13
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Ennis – Leivo – Gauthier7:25
xG 0.12–0.32 (27%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner9:51
xG 0.16–0.38 (29%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev11:40
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Dermott2:07
xG 0.12–0.14 (45%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Rielly4:05
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:28
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Heinen – Bjork – Forsbacka Karlsson10:05
xG 0.32–0.06 (85%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Backes – Wagner – Kuraly8:57
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Krejci – Nordstrom – DeBrusk8:40
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Grzelcyk10:42
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Moore – Carlo7:21
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Krug – Carlo5:42
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).