Sat, Nov 10, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Arizona Coyotes 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 012 | 016 | 011 | 039 |
| PIT | 013 | 310 | 19 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:42PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Jake Guentzel · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 8:34PITDominik SimonAssists: Bryan Rust, Olli Maatta · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 19:44PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Dominik Simon, Jack Johnson · Snap, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 7:24PITBrian DumoulinAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.08 xG0–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:43ARIBrad Richardson: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:49PITPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:20PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:20ARIBrad Richardson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:26PITPhil Kessel: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 17:34ARIJordan Oesterle: Holding2 min
- P3 11:23PITBryan Rust: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Grabner – Archibald5:20
xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 0–0
- Archibald – Perlini – Strome3:36
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
- Hinostroza – Strome – Crouse2:55
xG 0.11–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stepan – Perlini – Keller4:19
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Connauton2:19
xG 0.51–0.05 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Connauton – Lyubushkin12:09
xG 0.66–0.45 (59%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Oesterle11:49
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin9:12
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Crosby – Kessel – Guentzel3:05
xG 0.24–0.07 (77%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Crosby – Rust – Simon8:15
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Cullen – Wilson – Aston-Reese7:53
xG 0.01–0.24 (4%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Letang16:13
xG 0.73–0.53 (58%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Dumoulin – Ruhwedel12:07
xG 0.58–0.65 (47%)attempts 10–23goals 2–0
- Maatta – Riikola13:49
xG 0.52–0.90 (37%)attempts 11–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).