Sun, Nov 11, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
New Jersey Devils 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 113 | 112 | 011 | 236 |
| WPG | 211 | 310 | 07 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:02WPGJack RoslovicAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 3:31WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 7:15NJDBrett SeneyAssists: Jesper Bratt, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 2:58WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 3:45NJDBlake ColemanAssists: Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 7:54WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
- P2 12:47WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Kyle Connor, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:44WPGJosh Morrissey: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:31WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:21NJDStefan Noesen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:00NJDBrian Boyle: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:00WPGDustin Byfuglien: Charging2 min
- P2 5:00WPGDustin Byfuglien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:39NJDBen Lovejoy: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:39WPGBryan Little: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Seney – Anderson5:14
xG 0.63–0.03 (96%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Hall12:28
xG 0.92–0.68 (57%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Johansson – Coleman – Bratt5:43
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Wood – Seney – Anderson3:23
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Vatanen17:19
xG 1.12–0.70 (62%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Severson – Yakovlev14:58
xG 1.09–0.79 (58%)attempts 20–19goals 1–2
- Lovejoy – Vatanen2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Petan – Roslovic10:14
xG 0.47–0.11 (80%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Little – Perreault – Connor14:03
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 12–19goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers13:01
xG 0.78–0.91 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Lowry – Tanev – Laine9:40
xG 0.05–1.02 (5%)attempts 3–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey15:38
xG 0.76–0.50 (60%)attempts 14–18goals 2–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot14:07
xG 0.93–0.69 (57%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Myers – Chiarot2:15
xG 0.14–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).