Thu, Nov 15, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Nashville Predators 1, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 016 | 017 | 113 | 146 |
| ARI | 16 | 112 | 05 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:16ARIMichael GrabnerSHAssists: Kevin Connauton · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 4:09ARIJason DemersGWGAssists: Christian Fischer, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 12:09NSHNick BoninoAssists: Austin Watson, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:14ARIChristian Fischer: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:23NSHRyan Hartman: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:00ARINick Cousins: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:05ARIAlex Galchenyuk: Elbowing2 min
- P2 10:39ARIDarcy Kuemper: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:19ARIJosh Archibald: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 2:29NSHPekka Rinne: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Watson – Sissons6:40
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Jarnkrok9:24
xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Salomaki – Hartman – Gaudreau3:57
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Fiala11:50
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Ekholm13:21
xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Weber – Irwin6:44
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis15:43
xG 0.56–0.66 (46%)attempts 27–14goals 1–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Galchenyuk – Perlini7:24
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Richardson – Panik – Hinostroza9:01
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Stepan – Fischer – Keller11:27
xG 0.55–0.78 (41%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Archibald – Cousins – Crouse4:44
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hjalmarsson – Oesterle13:47
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Connauton2:24
xG 0.04–0.13 (24%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Connauton – Lyubushkin8:46
xG 0.33–0.53 (39%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).