Fri, Nov 16, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Buffalo Sabres 2, Winnipeg Jets 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 04 | 016 | 110 | 02 | 3 | 232 |
| WPG | 012 | 18 | 05 | 01 | 2 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:10WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Patrik Laine, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 0:53BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. WPG Mark Scheifele stopped
- 2. BUF Jack Eichel scored
- 3. WPG Patrik Laine scored
- 4. BUF Sam Reinhart stopped
- 5. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 6. BUF Casey Mittelstadt stopped
- 7. WPG Bryan Little stopped
- 8. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
- 9. WPG Kyle Connor scored
- 10. BUF Jason Pominville scored
- 11. WPG Jack Roslovic stopped
- 12. BUF Kyle Okposo stopped
- 13. WPG Mathieu Perreault stopped
- 14. BUF Conor Sheary scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:19WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:10BUFPatrik Berglund: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:45WPGJacob Trouba: Interference2 min
- P2 19:41WPGBrandon Tanev: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sobotka won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLarsson – Girgensons – Thompson10:37
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Okposo – Sheary – Mittelstadt10:58
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Pominville – Sobotka – Berglund10:58
xG 0.10–0.34 (22%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel13:38
xG 0.33–0.59 (36%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Dahlin9:04
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Scandella6:19
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Scandella – Beaulieu6:57
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Connor – Laine13:59
xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers14:21
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Perreault – Petan – Roslovic7:13
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev11:38
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot18:49
xG 0.64–0.35 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Trouba – Morrissey14:40
xG 0.71–0.43 (62%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Myers – Morrow14:28
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).