Fri, Nov 16, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Washington Capitals 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 013 | 212 | 03 | 11 | 329 |
| COL | 19 | 09 | 18 | 00 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Tyson Jost, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 8:55WSHDevante Smith-PellyAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Travis Boyd · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 18:29WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 17:16COLColin WilsonAssists: Matt Calvert, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–2
- OT 0:22WSHNicklas BackstromPPGWGAssists: John Carlson, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:07COLSheldon Dries: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:31WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:20COLGabriel Bourque: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:16WSHLars Eller: Interference2 min
- P3 18:51COLIan Cole: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Eller – Wilson11:25
xG 0.94–0.34 (73%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Dowd – Connolly – Jaskin2:44
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson4:33
xG 0.23–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Backstrom – Burakovsky – Vrana8:23
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Kempny17:14
xG 0.97–0.63 (61%)attempts 17–20goals 1–0
- Djoos – Bowey13:43
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov15:08
xG 0.44–0.58 (43%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Andrighetto – Jost2:27
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Wilson – Calvert2:36
xG 0.35–0.12 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Bourque – Andrighetto – Kamenev5:34
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Dries8:49
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Barrie11:56
xG 1.16–0.21 (85%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Johnson – Cole3:22
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Barberio – Nemeth11:51
xG 0.13–0.20 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).