Sat, Nov 17, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
Detroit Red Wings 3, New Jersey Devils 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 04 | 111 | 19 | 16 | 330 |
| NJD | 115 | 19 | 014 | 02 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:35NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Jesper Bratt · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 15:53NJDBlake ColemanSHAssists: Damon Severson, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 18:26DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Dennis Cholowski, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 13:37DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Mike Green, Tyler Bertuzzi · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 4:09DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Anthony Mantha · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 0:34DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:34NJDDamon Severson: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:03NJDKyle Palmieri: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:03DETGustav Nyquist: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:03NJDKyle Palmieri: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:42NJDBen Lovejoy: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Bertuzzi – Rasmussen5:07
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Frk – de la Rose – Rasmussen2:08
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Glendening – Bertuzzi5:41
xG 0.03–0.37 (8%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Mantha – Larkin5:37
xG 0.08–0.61 (12%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jensen – DeKeyser20:06
xG 0.55–0.67 (45%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
- Daley – Green13:57
xG 0.42–1.13 (27%)attempts 12–21goals 1–1
- Kronwall – Cholowski13:23
xG 0.17–1.00 (14%)attempts 5–16goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Zacha – Bratt10:21
xG 0.87–0.06 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Coleman – Seney – Anderson8:12
xG 0.51–0.13 (80%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Noesen – Wood – Dea10:12
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Zajac – Palmieri – Hall13:24
xG 0.61–0.42 (60%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson17:04
xG 1.28–0.28 (82%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Mueller – Yakovlev12:48
xG 0.70–0.27 (72%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Severson – Mueller4:31
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).