Sat, Nov 17, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 2, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 213 | 014 | 014 | 241 |
| NYR | 212 | 15 | 17 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Kevin Hayes, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 4:40FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 10:11FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Mike Hoffman · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 11:49NYRBrendan SmithAssists: Lias Andersson, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 2:37NYRVladislav NamestnikovGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 7:56NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Henrik Lundqvist · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:50NYRLias Andersson: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:34NYRVinni Lettieri: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:55NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:55FLAMike Matheson: Embellishment2 min
- P2 9:44FLANick Bjugstad: Interference2 min
- P2 15:35NYRKevin Hayes: Interference2 min
- P3 7:34FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Bjugstad – McCann7:22
xG 0.58–0.29 (66%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Sceviour – Barkov – Lammikko2:23
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Vatrano11:12
xG 0.67–0.82 (45%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Lammikko – Mamin2:48
xG 0.06–0.23 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kiselevich12:28
xG 0.67–0.34 (66%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Yandle – Pysyk13:17
xG 0.33–0.66 (33%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Matheson – Ekblad14:37
xG 0.64–1.13 (36%)attempts 17–14goals 0–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Hayes – Chytil9:59
xG 1.30–0.44 (75%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Fast – Zibanejad – Namestnikov10:41
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- McLeod – Lettieri – Andersson3:38
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Strome – Vesey – Howden11:59
xG 0.20–0.83 (19%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Pionk14:51
xG 1.09–0.35 (76%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
- Smith – DeAngelo14:30
xG 0.62–0.69 (47%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Claesson13:52
xG 0.55–0.81 (40%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).