Mon, Nov 19, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Dallas Stars 1, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 15 | 05 | 117 |
| NYR | 04 | 19 | 110 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:17DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Esa Lindell, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 9:38NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Marc Staal, Brett Howden · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 4:32NYRFilip ChytilGWGAssists: Brendan Smith · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:20DALValeri Nichushkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:34NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:20NYRBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:31NYRMika Zibanejad: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:05NYRFredrik Claesson: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:19DALJason Dickinson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestJanmark – Dickinson – Nichushkin4:54
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Smith – Hintz3:44
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin9:57
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Comeau – Pitlick – Faksa6:33
xG 0.10–0.52 (16%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Hanley2:29
xG 0.31–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hanley – Heiskanen10:18
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Polak – Bayreuther10:41
xG 0.21–0.17 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Hayes – Chytil10:12
xG 0.47–0.03 (95%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Fast – Zibanejad – Namestnikov10:41
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- McLeod – Fogarty – Andersson5:48
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Strome – Vesey – Howden9:51
xG 0.07–0.21 (26%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – DeAngelo13:17
xG 0.52–0.10 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Claesson13:39
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Pionk15:05
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).