Mon, Nov 19, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 110 | 211 | 118 | 11 | 540 |
| PIT | 215 | 216 | 09 | 00 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:46PITDerick BrassardAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 11:43BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 16:15PITPhil KesselAssists: Tanner Pearson, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 1:24PITJake GuentzelAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–3
- P2 5:00PITTanner PearsonAssists: Jack Johnson, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–4
- P2 10:39BUFZach BogosianAssists: Jeff Skinner, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P2 18:12BUFCasey NelsonAssists: Kyle Okposo, Conor Sheary · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 11:12BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Kyle Okposo, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- OT 0:45BUFJack EichelGWGAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:16PITOlli Maatta: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:50BUFJake McCabe: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:50BUFJake McCabe: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:50PITRiley Sheahan: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:42BUFZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:13BUFMarco Scandella: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:44PITDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:40PITChad Ruhwedel: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Reinhart – Thompson11:29
xG 0.70–0.02 (98%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Okposo – Sheary – Mittelstadt9:09
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 2–1
- Berglund – Larsson – Girgensons9:49
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Pominville – Skinner – Eichel10:53
xG 0.53–0.53 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Nelson3:00
xG 0.46–0.14 (77%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Dahlin11:44
xG 0.90–0.80 (53%)attempts 15–11goals 2–3
- Ristolainen – Dahlin4:51
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Brassard – Guentzel11:37
xG 0.73–0.57 (56%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
- Sheahan – Rust – Aston-Reese8:12
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Pearson13:34
xG 0.67–0.80 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
- Grant – Sprong – Simon8:05
xG 0.03–0.32 (8%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Maatta10:11
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- Letang – Dumoulin11:33
xG 0.72–0.60 (54%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Maatta – Ruhwedel3:14
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).