Mon, Nov 19, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 18 | 09 | 114 | 231 |
| NSH | 116 | 213 | 05 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Brayden Point, Erik Cernak · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 15:19NSHKyle TurrisPPAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Mattias Ekholm · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 6:43NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 10:16NSHRyan JohansenGWGAssists: Craig Smith, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 3:25TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:42NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:15TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:22TBLRyan McDonagh: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:44NSHAnthony Bitetto: Interference2 min
- P2 18:03TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Joseph – Cirelli2:08
xG 0.19–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point5:04
xG 0.33–0.21 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Johnson – Gourde – Point7:30
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Miller11:05
xG 0.32–0.54 (37%)attempts 6–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Koekkoek4:57
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak5:38
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Girardi – McDonagh2:26
xG 0.14–0.08 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Jarnkrok – Hartman9:56
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Salomaki – Gaudreau – Fiala5:42
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Bonino – Watson – Sissons11:23
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Smith – Johansen – Forsberg13:30
xG 0.31–0.49 (39%)attempts 12–15goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Ekholm15:48
xG 0.79–0.18 (81%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Weber – Bitetto9:13
xG 0.40–0.27 (59%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis19:03
xG 0.90–0.92 (50%)attempts 19–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).