Mon, Nov 19, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Winnipeg Jets 6, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 323 | 110 | 216 | 649 |
| VAN | 17 | 29 | 09 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13WPGBryan LittleUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 8:09VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Ben Hutton, Nikolay Goldobin · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 14:00WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P1 14:39WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 10:04WPGPatrik LaineGWGAssists: Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
- P2 11:21VANTyler MotteSHAssists: Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P2 16:08VANNikolay GoldobinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 14:11WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Bryan Little, Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 18:08WPGPatrik LaineENAssists: Kyle Connor, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.72 xG6–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:55VANErik Gudbranson: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:17WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:16VANMarkus Granlund: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:26WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:04VANTroy Stecher: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:06WPGBrandon Tanev: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:06VANAntoine Roussel: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:06VANAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:06VANAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
- P2 16:44WPGJacob Trouba: Holding2 min
- P3 6:44VANElias Pettersson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Connor – Laine8:57
xG 0.76–0.17 (82%)attempts 10–9goals 3–0
- Perreault – Petan – Roslovic6:55
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev10:08
xG 0.52–0.26 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers11:45
xG 1.00–0.87 (53%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey12:11
xG 1.08–0.63 (63%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Myers – Morrow13:14
xG 1.06–0.70 (60%)attempts 17–17goals 2–1
- Byfuglien – Chiarot15:53
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Granlund – Horvat3:25
xG 0.44–0.12 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gagner – Motte – Horvat3:59
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Virtanen – Goldobin – Pettersson5:16
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Goldobin – Pettersson2:39
xG 0.13–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Stecher12:40
xG 0.76–0.19 (79%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Tanev – Pouliot13:53
xG 0.76–0.86 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton15:15
xG 0.50–1.87 (21%)attempts 12–28goals 0–4
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).