Fri, Nov 23, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 111 | 17 | 014 | 232 |
| TBL | 419 | 06 | 04 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:29TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 7:15TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 10:05TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P1 11:10CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Nick Schmaltz · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
- P1 14:52TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 18:49CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:37CHIDuncan Keith: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:39CHIDominik Kahun: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:40CHIJan Rutta: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:16TBLAdam Erne: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:07TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Saad12:11
xG 0.85–0.63 (58%)attempts 15–8goals 1–3
- Fortin – Kampf – Kahun8:34
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kruger – Johnson7:01
xG 0.09–0.59 (13%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Schmaltz – DeBrincat10:27
xG 0.31–1.09 (22%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Forsling10:11
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Keith – Rutta6:09
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Forsling8:06
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Joseph – Cirelli9:31
xG 0.76–0.34 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne8:32
xG 0.52–0.30 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Miller – Gourde9:04
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point12:25
xG 0.71–0.98 (42%)attempts 10–20goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Hedman13:43
xG 1.13–0.18 (86%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak15:21
xG 1.28–0.99 (56%)attempts 16–21goals 4–1
- Coburn – Sergachev11:11
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).