Fri, Nov 23, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Ottawa Senators 4, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 113 | 212 | 433 |
| DAL | 119 | 224 | 311 | 654 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Bobby Ryan, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 10:22DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alexander Radulov · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 10:02OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–1
- P2 12:45DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Alexander Radulov, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 18:48DALTaylor FedunAssists: Devin Shore, Roope Hintz · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 4:40DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Mattias Janmark, Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 6:12DALBlake ComeauGWGAssists: Esa Lindell, Jason Dickinson · Snap, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 10:36OTTMaxime LajoieAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–5
- P3 13:54OTTZack SmithAssists: Bobby Ryan, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.16 xG4–5
- P3 17:50DALGavin BayreutherENUnassisted · Snap, 0.54 xG4–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:07OTTMax McCormick: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:59OTTBobby Ryan: Interference2 min
- P2 9:42DALGavin Bayreuther: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:06OTTBen Harpur: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:24DALRoope Hintz: Holding2 min
- P3 18:31OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:31DALEsa Lindell: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:31OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:31DALRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStone – Tierney – Tkachuk7:03
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 11–5goals 0–2
- Duchene – Batherson – Tkachuk3:07
xG 0.11–0.01 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Ryan – Smith – Dzingel8:02
xG 0.43–0.53 (44%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Paajarvi – McCormick3:30
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Harpur2:16
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Lajoie2:08
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Ceci – Chabot4:44
xG 0.42–0.47 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Faksa – Nichushkin10:40
xG 0.69–0.30 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin13:19
xG 0.91–0.53 (63%)attempts 25–18goals 1–1
- Spezza – Shore – Hintz7:22
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Comeau – Janmark – Dickinson11:14
xG 0.51–0.64 (44%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Bayreuther16:16
xG 1.38–0.43 (76%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
- Fedun – Hanley10:31
xG 0.70–0.46 (61%)attempts 25–9goals 0–1
- Polak – Hanley2:35
xG 0.29–0.05 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).