Fri, Nov 23, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Colorado Avalanche 5, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 317 | 011 | 211 | 539 |
| ARI | 011 | 014 | 113 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:28COLJ.T. CompherSHAssists: Matt Nieto · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 8:53COLJ.T. CompherSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 9:39COLMikko RantanenAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 6:11COLTyson BarrieAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–0
- P3 13:02ARIDylan StromePPAssists: Brendan Perlini, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–1
- P3 15:41COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.46 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:15COLMikko Rantanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:15ARIKevin Connauton: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:44ARIClayton Keller: Interference2 min
- P2 5:27COLIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 9:02ARIJakob Chychrun: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:09ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:30COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:05ARIMichael Grabner: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Compher – Kamenev6:44
xG 0.52–0.22 (71%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost8:58
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:15
xG 0.71–0.56 (56%)attempts 15–16goals 2–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Dries8:30
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Zadorov13:24
xG 0.93–0.21 (82%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Cole – Barrie14:06
xG 0.70–0.40 (64%)attempts 22–18goals 1–0
- Johnson – Cole2:35
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Galchenyuk – Fischer – Crouse8:00
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza10:26
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Stepan – Panik – Keller11:47
xG 0.55–0.59 (48%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Cousins – Perlini – Strome8:31
xG 0.28–0.59 (32%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Chychrun – Lyubushkin4:12
xG 0.05–0.07 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Chychrun11:10
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Ekman-Larsson14:17
xG 0.60–0.79 (43%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).