Sun, Nov 25, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Calgary Flames 6, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 210 | 212 | 25 | 627 |
| ARI | 08 | 010 | 111 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:27CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:22CGYNoah HanifinSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 8:34CGYNoah HanifinPPAssists: James Neal, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–0
- P2 11:25CGYMark JankowskiAssists: TJ Brodie, Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–0
- P3 3:39CGYTJ BrodieSHAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–0
- P3 4:03CGYMark JankowskiSHAssists: Derek Ryan, Mark Giordano · Backhand, 0.18 xG6–0
- P3 13:44ARIClayton KellerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG6–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:20CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 9:21ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:21CGYAustin Czarnik: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:50ARINick Cousins: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:07CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:00ARIJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:07ARIDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:59ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 11:47ARIBrendan Perlini: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:28CGYGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan10:31
xG 0.60–0.41 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Neal – Gaudreau – Monahan2:41
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Neal – Czarnik – Ryan8:27
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bennett – Tkachuk8:57
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie12:57
xG 0.94–0.32 (74%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin11:11
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Andersson – Kylington13:21
xG 0.37–0.38 (50%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Panik – Galchenyuk – Hinostroza9:42
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Cousins – Strome – Crouse9:34
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Fischer9:10
xG 0.11–0.15 (41%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Stepan – Perlini – Keller9:01
xG 0.36–0.79 (31%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Connauton10:10
xG 0.53–0.18 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun11:00
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Connauton2:16
xG 0.03–0.07 (31%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).