Sun, Nov 25, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 110 | 011 | 114 | 235 |
| TBL | 411 | 116 | 09 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:19TBLAlex KillornAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 7:21TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 9:15TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P1 9:39NJDStefan NoesenAssists: Brett Seney · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P1 11:25TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Ryan Callahan, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 8:30TBLBrayden PointUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 5:21NJDJesper BrattUnassisted · Slap, 0.07 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:15NJDBrian Boyle: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:41NJDMiles Wood: Holding2 min
- P1 15:51TBLDan Girardi: Interference2 min
- P2 2:33TBLBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:48NJDBen Lovejoy: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Noesen – Seney10:07
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Zajac – Coleman – Wood5:43
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Johansson – Zacha – Bratt10:43
xG 0.41–0.36 (54%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Zajac – Hall – Coleman4:25
xG 0.12–0.08 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher10:11
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- Lovejoy – Yakovlev2:44
xG 0.19–0.04 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Severson – Butcher2:09
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kucherov – Point10:30
xG 0.79–0.32 (71%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Stamkos – Miller – Gourde13:08
xG 0.67–0.31 (68%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli10:06
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne9:11
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak14:52
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Coburn – Sergachev15:29
xG 0.70–0.60 (54%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sergachev2:06
xG 0.07–0.08 (48%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).