Mon, Nov 26, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 7, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 316 | 27 | 29 | 732 |
| DET | 010 | 314 | 28 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:34CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Artemi Panarin, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 9:51CBJJosh AndersonAssists: Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 16:04CBJArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Josh Anderson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 0:44DETGustav NyquistAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Anthony Mantha · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 5:02CBJMarkus NutivaaraAssists: Ryan Murray, Markus Hannikainen · Slap, 0.02 xG4–1
- P2 6:40CBJBoone JennerAssists: Ryan Murray, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.03 xG5–1
- P2 8:05DETMike GreenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–2
- P2 17:43DETDennis CholowskiPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 0:39DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Dylan Larkin, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–4
- P3 3:34CBJPierre-Luc DuboisGWGAssists: David Savard, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.24 xG6–4
- P3 17:48DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Trevor Daley, Dennis Cholowski · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–5
- P3 18:29CBJSeth JonesENAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.46 xG7–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:34DETMichael Rasmussen: Cross checking2 min
- P1 2:13CBJCam Atkinson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:01DETTrevor Daley: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:55DETDylan Larkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:10CBJCam Atkinson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:22DETDennis Cholowski: Holding2 min
- P3 1:16CBJBoone Jenner: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Sedlak – Hannikainen8:40
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois11:57
xG 0.59–0.46 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Dubinsky – Duclair – Wennberg7:28
xG 0.27–0.21 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Foligno – Jenner – Anderson12:30
xG 0.29–0.46 (39%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Harrington9:05
xG 0.39–0.24 (63%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Jones – Werenski17:15
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 14–13goals 0–2
- Murray – Nutivaara14:19
xG 0.57–0.73 (44%)attempts 7–14goals 2–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Mantha – Larkin12:10
xG 0.83–0.14 (86%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Athanasiou6:51
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Abdelkader – Mantha – Larkin3:47
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Frk – de la Rose – Rasmussen3:46
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser15:59
xG 0.69–0.35 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- Green – Cholowski2:24
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green7:54
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).