Tue, Nov 27, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 16 | 09 | 39 | 424 |
| PHI | 111 | 216 | 010 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:23PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Claude Giroux, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 5:51OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Mark Stone, Brady Tkachuk · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 3:22PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Ivan Provorov, Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 6:00PHIRadko GudasAssists: Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom · Snap, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 11:32OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Mark Stone, Colin White · Snap, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 13:26OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Thomas Chabot, Colin White · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 17:01OTTMatt DucheneGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:13PHIDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:13OTTBen Harpur: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:59PHIRobert Hagg: Interference2 min
- P1 13:37PHIJordan Weal: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:29PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Patrick won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStone – White – Tkachuk13:19
xG 1.00–0.37 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Paajarvi3:21
xG 0.00–0.06 (4%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Boedker – Paajarvi – Tierney2:39
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Duchene – Batherson3:57
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Chabot6:37
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Harpur – Jaros15:32
xG 0.43–0.72 (37%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Ceci – Lajoie11:28
xG 0.08–0.49 (13%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny14:58
xG 1.25–0.19 (87%)attempts 26–5goals 1–1
- Laughton – Raffl – Lindblom3:51
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Simmonds – Weal12:53
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Voracek – Weise – Patrick12:58
xG 0.23–0.82 (22%)attempts 9–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hagg11:42
xG 1.10–0.16 (87%)attempts 20–3goals 0–0
- Gudas – Sanheim15:42
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Hagg – Provorov3:23
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).