Wed, Nov 28, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 05 | 212 | 18 | 325 |
| COL | 18 | 29 | 39 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:19COLSamuel GirardAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 5:13COLErik JohnsonAssists: Sven Andrighetto · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 7:52COLColin WilsonAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Jost · Snap, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 19:08PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.36 xG1–3
- P2 19:50PITSidney CrosbyPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 4:43PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Dominik Simon, Juuso Riikola · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–3
- P3 10:05COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:31COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–5
- P3 19:44COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Matt Calvert, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:49PITSidney Crosby: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 1:08COLAlexander Kerfoot: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:58COLVladislav Kamenev: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:45COLPatrik Nemeth: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:38COLCarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Simon14:12
xG 1.37–0.28 (83%)attempts 20–8goals 2–2
- Grant – Wilson – Sheahan6:49
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Malkin – Rust – Pearson11:46
xG 0.14–0.18 (43%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Aston-Reese10:53
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Riikola14:28
xG 0.73–0.20 (79%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin17:04
xG 0.87–0.42 (68%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Johnson – Oleksiak14:06
xG 0.02–0.42 (4%)attempts 5–11goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestAndrighetto – Compher – Kamenev5:59
xG 0.10–0.00 (98%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost8:32
xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto9:07
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 4–16goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen16:21
xG 0.38–1.19 (24%)attempts 12–13goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Nemeth12:45
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Johnson – Girard12:09
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Johnson – Cole2:55
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).