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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 28, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver

Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Colorado Avalanche 6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.

COL winsPIT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:20Shot by Johnson, saved by Jarry
  3. P1 1:29Shot by Johnson, saved by Jarry
  4. P1 2:02Shot by Jost, saved by Jarry
  5. P1 2:27Shot by Rantanen, saved by Jarry
  6. P1 4:35Shot by Calvert, saved by Jarry
  7. P1 11:19Goal by Girard (Rantanen, MacKinnon)+16 pts WP

    On ice: COL Johnson, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen, Girard · PIT Crosby, Letang, Dumoulin, Guentzel, Simon

  8. P1 11:54Shot by Pearson, saved by Grubauer
  9. P1 13:30Shot by Grant, saved by Grubauer
  10. P1 15:34Shot by Dumoulin, saved by Grubauer
  11. P1 15:44Shot by Nieto, saved by Jarry
  12. P1 17:49Shot by Wilson, saved by Grubauer
  13. P1 17:55Shot by Riikola, saved by Grubauer
  14. P1 19:47Shot by Zadorov, saved by Jarry
  15. P1 0:00Period end
  16. P2 0:00Period start
  17. P2 0:49Crosby: Holding the stick (2 min)

    On ice: COL Cole, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen, Girard · PIT Crosby, Letang, Dumoulin, Guentzel, Simon

  18. P2 1:08Kerfoot: High sticking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: COL Soderberg, Johnson, Kerfoot, Compher, Jost · PIT Johnson, Sheahan, Maatta, Aston-Reese

  19. P2 2:23Shot by Johnson, saved by Jarry4v4
  20. P2 3:08Shot by Dumoulin, saved by Grubauer
  21. P2 3:27Shot by Letang, saved by Grubauer
  22. P2 3:22Shot by Dumoulin, saved by Grubauer
  23. P2 5:01Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Grubauer
  24. P2 5:13Goal by Johnson (Andrighetto)+14 pts WP

    On ice: COL Johnson, Andrighetto, Compher, Kamenev, Girard · PIT Brassard, Kessel, Dumoulin, Aston-Reese, Riikola

  25. P2 5:57Shot by Crosby, saved by Grubauer
  26. P2 6:18Shot by Landeskog, saved by Jarry
  27. P2 7:14Shot by Johnson, saved by Jarry
  28. P2 7:46Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Jarry
  29. P2 7:52Goal by Wilson (MacKinnon, Jost)+7 pts WP

    On ice: COL Wilson, Barberio, Nemeth, MacKinnon, Jost · PIT Crosby, Johnson, Oleksiak, Guentzel, Simon

  30. P2 8:45Shot by Kamenev, saved by Jarry
  31. P2 9:03Shot by Maatta, saved by Grubauer
  32. P2 9:30Shot by Malkin, saved by Grubauer
  33. P2 11:39Shot by Maatta, saved by Grubauer
  34. P2 11:58Kamenev: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: COL Cole, Andrighetto, Compher, Zadorov, Kamenev · PIT Malkin, Letang, Dumoulin, Rust, Pearson

  35. P2 15:39Shot by Crosby, saved by Grubauer
  36. P2 17:47Shot by Andrighetto, saved by Jarry
  37. P2 19:08Shot by Crosby, saved by Grubauer
  38. P2 19:08Goal by Crosby (Guentzel)+6 pts WP

    On ice: COL Cole, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Zadorov, Rantanen · PIT Crosby, Letang, Dumoulin, Guentzel, Simon

  39. P2 19:45Nemeth: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: COL Johnson, Wilson, Nemeth, Kerfoot, Jost · PIT Malkin, Johnson, Rust, Oleksiak, Pearson

  40. P2 19:50Goal by Crosby, unassisted4v5+14 pts WP

    On ice: COL Soderberg, Johnson, Cole, Compher · PIT Malkin, Crosby, Letang, Kessel, Guentzel

  41. P2 19:56Shot by Calvert, saved by Jarry
  42. P2 0:00Period end
  43. P3 0:00Period start
  44. P3 1:05Shot by Calvert, saved by Jarry
  45. P3 2:08Shot by Letang, saved by Grubauer
  46. P3 3:19Shot by Landeskog, saved by Jarry
  47. P3 3:30Shot by Johnson, saved by Jarry
  48. P3 4:07Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Grubauer
  49. P3 4:16Shot by Letang, saved by Grubauer
  50. P3 4:43Shot by Crosby, saved by Grubauer
  51. P3 4:43Goal by Crosby (Simon, Riikola)+30 pts WP

    On ice: COL Cole, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen, Girard · PIT Crosby, Maatta, Guentzel, Simon, Riikola

  52. P3 5:56Shot by Andrighetto, saved by Jarry
  53. P3 6:38Shot by Girard, saved by Jarry
  54. P3 7:38Soderberg: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: COL Soderberg, Calvert, Barberio, Nemeth, Nieto · PIT Brassard, Kessel, Maatta, Aston-Reese, Riikola

  55. P3 10:05Goal by Landeskog (MacKinnon, Rantanen)+35 pts WP

    On ice: COL Johnson, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Zadorov, Rantanen · PIT Brassard, Oleksiak, Pearson, Simon, Riikola

  56. P3 13:56Shot by Girard, saved by Jarry
  57. P3 16:27Shot by Simon, saved by Grubauer
  58. P3 18:10Shot by Pearson, saved by Grubauer5v6
  59. P3 19:31Goal by MacKinnon (Landeskog)5v6+2 pts WP

    On ice: COL Johnson, Cole, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen · PIT Malkin, Crosby, Letang, Kessel, Pearson, Guentzel

  60. P3 19:34Shot by Johnson, saved by Grubauer
  61. P3 19:44Goal by Soderberg (Calvert, Nieto)0 pts WP

    On ice: COL Soderberg, Calvert, Barberio, Nemeth, Nieto · PIT Johnson, Grant, Wilson, Sheahan, Oleksiak

  62. P3 0:00Period end
  63. P3 0:00Final