Thu, Nov 29, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Arizona Coyotes 3, Nashville Predators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 08 | 28 | 19 | 325 |
| NSH | 09 | 014 | 06 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:40ARIClayton KellerGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 19:39ARINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 11:23ARIBrad RichardsonAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 11:14ARIMichael Grabner: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:21NSHDan Hamhuis: Interference2 min
- P2 13:47NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min
- P2 18:49NSHMattias Ekholm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 0:27NSHColton Sissons: Interference2 min
- P3 12:07NSHRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:07ARILawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:39ARIMichael Grabner: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:00NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:00NSHMatt Irwin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:00ARILawson Crouse: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:00ARILawson Crouse: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:00NSHMatt Irwin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestGalchenyuk – Schmaltz – Keller10:56
xG 0.74–0.49 (60%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Stepan – Panik – Fischer9:45
xG 0.41–0.33 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza11:37
xG 0.33–0.35 (49%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Archibald – Cousins – Crouse9:21
xG 0.14–0.22 (38%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Connauton15:17
xG 0.68–0.52 (56%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Connauton2:11
xG 0.04–0.02 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Chychrun14:45
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGrimaldi – Salomaki – Gaudreau6:48
xG 0.47–0.06 (89%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Jarnkrok – Hartman13:51
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Bonino – Watson – Sissons7:34
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Fiala7:21
xG 0.16–0.40 (29%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis14:54
xG 0.96–0.51 (65%)attempts 26–10goals 0–2
- Weber – Irwin8:05
xG 0.30–0.03 (92%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Weber – Ekholm2:42
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).