Fri, Nov 30, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 2, Florida Panthers 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 16 | 19 | 07 | 02 | 224 |
| FLA | 114 | 012 | 116 | 11 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:55BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 18:31FLAJared McCannPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Frank Vatrano · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 2:41BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Linus Ullmark · Slap, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 11:56FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.25 xG2–2
- OT 2:26FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:48BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P1 16:40BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:04FLANick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:47FLAMike Matheson: Holding2 min
- P2 18:19BUFPatrik Berglund: Holding2 min
- P3 2:29FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:48BUFCasey Nelson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:11FLAAlexander Petrovic: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against McCann
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Okposo – Thompson – Mittelstadt9:40
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Larsson – Girgensons – Rodrigues10:09
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Pominville – Sobotka – Berglund8:54
xG 0.09–0.48 (16%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel10:55
xG 0.10–0.65 (14%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Beaulieu – Ristolainen2:06
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Dahlin3:14
xG 0.02–0.06 (20%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Nelson – Pilut9:56
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – McCann – Hunt3:25
xG 0.47–0.03 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Huberdeau – Barkov8:13
xG 0.49–0.07 (88%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Haley – Lammikko6:05
xG 0.50–0.08 (86%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Bjugstad – Vatrano6:53
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad16:57
xG 0.91–0.15 (86%)attempts 25–8goals 0–1
- Petrovic – Weegar14:37
xG 0.72–0.26 (73%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson13:18
xG 0.90–0.46 (66%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).