Sat, Dec 1, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 15 | 111 | 05 | 221 |
| NSH | 413 | 010 | 17 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:11NSHKevin FialaAssists: Ryan Johansen, Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 3:32NSHEeli TolvanenAssists: Craig Smith · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 4:11NSHRyan JohansenGWGAssists: Kevin Fiala, Dan Hamhuis · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–3
- P1 12:20CHIBrandon SaadSHAssists: Brent Seabrook · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–3
- P1 13:35NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Eeli Tolvanen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 13:16CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Brandon Manning, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 17:06NSHAustin WatsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:18CHIDuncan Keith: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:18CHIDuncan Keith: Instigator2 min
- P1 7:18NSHMatt Irwin: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:18CHIAlex DeBrincat: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:18NSHMatt Irwin: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:18CHIDuncan Keith: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:18CHIDuncan Keith: Misconduct10 min
- P1 7:18CHIDuncan Keith: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 8:48CHIAndreas Martinsen: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:37NSHAustin Watson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kruger – Martinsen4:34
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Saad2:19
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat9:33
xG 0.22–0.33 (39%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Hayden – Kampf – Kahun10:46
xG 0.26–0.45 (36%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Jokiharju5:42
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Manning – Gustafsson2:29
xG 0.03–0.03 (51%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Jokiharju3:46
xG 0.03–0.08 (28%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Hartman – Fiala11:22
xG 1.00–0.35 (74%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Smith – Jarnkrok – Tolvanen11:12
xG 0.76–0.31 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Watson – Salomaki – Sissons12:54
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Gaudreau – Richard5:37
xG 0.04–0.17 (19%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Ekholm17:11
xG 0.70–0.26 (73%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Weber – Irwin11:45
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Josi – Ellis18:27
xG 0.99–0.80 (55%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).