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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 1, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale

St. Louis Blues 1, Arizona Coyotes 6

Away

St. Louis Blues

1

Final

Home

Arizona Coyotes

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 89% of the time.

ARI winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL06110010126
ARI11442416644

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:27ARIJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:58ARIClayton KellerGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P2 1:26STLRobert ThomasAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
  4. P2 2:59ARIChristian FischerAssists: Richard Panik, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
  5. P2 8:21ARINick CousinsAssists: Derek Stepan, Josh Archibald · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
  6. P2 17:02ARIRichard PanikAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
  7. P3 14:08ARIAlex GoligoskiAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–6
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 3:33STLOskar Sundqvist: Holding2 min
  2. P1 8:01STLRobert Bortuzzo: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 10:55STLRobby Fabbri: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  4. P1 14:24STLSammy Blais: High sticking double minor4 min
  5. P1 16:09ARIRichard Panik: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 4:57STLPatrick Maroon: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 9:48ARIKevin Connauton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  8. P2 17:36STLOskar Sundqvist: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 6:37ARILawson Crouse: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 9:16STLJoel Edmundson: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 9:16STLVladimir Tarasenko: Misconduct10 min
  12. P3 9:16ARINick Schmaltz: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 12:47STLDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
  14. P3 12:47ARIVinnie Hinostroza: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ARI
46% to win54% to win
← STL attackARI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Barbashev won the faceoff against Cousins
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLARI
26Shots on goal44
1.7Expected goals4.7
47Shot attempts77
36Faceoffs won25
2Power plays7
28Penalty minutes10
31Hits13
15Blocked shots14
5Giveaways7
7Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

St. Louis Blues

Forward lines

  1. bestPerron – Schenn – Blais2:17

    xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

  2. Sundqvist – Sanford – Barbashev3:51

    xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

  3. Maroon – Bozak – Blais4:46

    xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0

  4. O'Reilly – Tarasenko – Thomas5:56

    xG 0.18–0.61 (23%)attempts 7–9goals 1–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestBouwmeester – Schmaltz5:12

    xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0

  2. Bouwmeester – Edmundson2:44

    xG 0.15–0.04 (77%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

  3. Edmundson – Dunn2:05

    xG 0.16–0.06 (72%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

Arizona Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. bestRichardson – Panik – Hinostroza3:03

    xG 0.48–0.04 (92%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0

  2. Stepan – Panik – Fischer5:17

    xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0

  3. Archibald – Cousins – Crouse7:25

    xG 0.20–0.03 (86%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0

  4. Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza2:57

    xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGoligoski – Oesterle11:40

    xG 0.70–0.18 (80%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0

  2. Hjalmarsson – Chychrun7:32

    xG 0.50–0.20 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0

  3. Ekman-Larsson – Connauton8:46

    xG 1.04–0.83 (56%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ARI 4.7 xGSTL 1.7 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ARISTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 27/100 · #910 of 1271 this seasonSwing 0.88 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50ARI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 89% of the time.

ARI winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (ARI − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).