Mon, Dec 3, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 212 | 28 | 16 | 526 |
| NJD | 08 | 19 | 010 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:31TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 19:34TBLBrayden PointPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 8:20TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 11:26NJDEgor YakovlevAssists: Sami Vatanen, Stefan Noesen · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 12:39TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 0:20TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:18TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:00TBLRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:49NJDEgor Yakovlev: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:17TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:17NJDMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:01TBLOndrej Palat: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:52NJDBlake Coleman: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:49TBLBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min
- P3 14:41NJDBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kucherov – Point11:33
xG 0.64–0.22 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Joseph8:10
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Gourde11:13
xG 0.33–0.36 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Killorn – Miller – Cirelli8:58
xG 0.17–0.25 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Hedman12:49
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Coburn – Sergachev15:12
xG 0.48–0.40 (55%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- McDonagh – Cernak13:15
xG 0.32–0.45 (41%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Johansson – Palmieri – Hischier5:38
xG 0.14–0.09 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Wood8:32
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Boyle – Noesen – Seney8:38
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Johansson – Noesen – Zacha3:21
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher4:34
xG 0.17–0.09 (64%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Butcher3:11
xG 0.04–0.08 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Mueller3:15
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).