Wed, Dec 5, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Carolina Hurricanes 1, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 017 | 112 | 011 | 140 |
| SJS | 29 | 27 | 17 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44SJSBarclay GoodrowAssists: Kevin Labanc, Melker Karlsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 10:10SJSTomas HertlPPGWGAssists: Kevin Labanc, Logan Couture · Deflected, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 8:42SJSTimo MeierAssists: Radim Simek, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 15:02SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Timo Meier, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–4
- P2 18:31CARLucas WallmarkPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 15:43SJSMarcus SorensenAssists: Timo Meier, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:19CARJordan Staal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:14CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:38SJSEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:25SJSEvander Kane: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:50CARBrock McGinn: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:50SJSMarcus Sorensen: Interference2 min
- P3 19:50SJSBrenden Dillon: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Teravainen – Aho13:04
xG 1.24–0.26 (83%)attempts 27–7goals 0–1
- Williams – Rask – McGinn11:21
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Martinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov11:21
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 20–7goals 0–1
- Di Giuseppe – Foegele – Bishop8:58
xG 0.11–0.23 (32%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – van Riemsdyk13:23
xG 0.90–0.26 (77%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin17:39
xG 1.40–0.89 (61%)attempts 28–18goals 0–2
- de Haan – Faulk18:01
xG 0.38–0.33 (54%)attempts 24–5goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Karlsson – Labanc8:41
xG 0.27–0.18 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Meier9:56
xG 0.36–0.46 (44%)attempts 5–14goals 2–0
- Kane – Donskoi – Suomela12:05
xG 0.17–0.49 (25%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Couture – Hertl12:02
xG 0.46–1.05 (31%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Dillon14:00
xG 0.79–0.36 (69%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun15:20
xG 0.51–0.75 (40%)attempts 9–20goals 1–0
- Burns – Simek14:25
xG 0.32–0.63 (33%)attempts 7–23goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).