Thu, Dec 6, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Boston Bruins 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 111 | 012 | 112 | 235 |
| TBL | 115 | 06 | 29 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:04BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Colby Cave · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 14:59TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 2:40TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Alex Killorn, Dan Girardi · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 4:03TBLAnthony CirelliSHGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 18:15BOSDavid KrejciAssists: David Pastrnak, David Backes · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:50BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:04TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:49TBLLouis Domingue: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Paquette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Donato – Forsbacka Karlsson2:17
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Krejci – Marchand – Pastrnak5:47
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Donato – Forsbacka Karlsson – Acciari8:24
xG 0.04–0.09 (33%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Krejci – Nordstrom – DeBrusk9:11
xG 0.18–0.24 (42%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Carlo7:09
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy3:49
xG 0.14–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Krug – McAvoy2:44
xG 0.04–0.02 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kucherov – Point11:45
xG 0.96–0.20 (83%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli2:36
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Joseph7:06
xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Miller – Cirelli7:36
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Hedman14:22
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Sergachev2:27
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sergachev13:02
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).