Thu, Dec 6, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Washington Capitals 4, Arizona Coyotes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 27 | 211 | 429 |
| ARI | 111 | 18 | 010 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:48ARIChristian FischerAssists: Derek Stepan · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 5:27WSHJakub VranaAssists: Brett Connolly, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 6:59ARILawson CrouseAssists: Nick Cousins, Jordan Oesterle · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 16:00WSHMatt NiskanenAssists: Travis Boyd, Pheonix Copley · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 15:18WSHAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Matt Niskanen, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 19:57WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.49 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:38WSHLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:16WSHBrett Connolly: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
- P2 11:25WSHMatt Niskanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:07ARIJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:16ARIKevin Connauton: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson13:32
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Connolly – Vrana13:12
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Burakovsky11:30
xG 0.30–0.55 (35%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Dowd – Boyd – Jaskin7:46
xG 0.26–1.01 (20%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny16:42
xG 0.78–0.32 (71%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Djoos – Siegenthaler10:44
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
- Carlson – Orlov2:27
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Kempe – Hinostroza5:16
xG 0.93–0.06 (94%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Stepan – Panik – Fischer12:00
xG 0.42–0.23 (64%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Richardson – Archibald – Crouse2:04
xG 0.11–0.02 (82%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Archibald – Cousins – Crouse4:33
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Oesterle14:00
xG 1.31–0.41 (76%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – Chychrun14:03
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Connauton18:37
xG 0.61–0.84 (42%)attempts 18–28goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).