Sat, Dec 8, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Nashville Predators 2, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 08 | 112 | 227 |
| CGY | 14 | 112 | 39 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:12CGYOliver KylingtonAssists: Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 19:07NSHColton SissonsAssists: Roman Josi, Miikka Salomaki · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 16:40CGYSean MonahanAssists: Noah Hanifin, Travis Hamonic · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 0:54NSHCraig SmithAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Rocco Grimaldi · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 6:03CGYGarnet HathawayGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Oliver Kylington · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 12:12CGYAlan QuineAssists: Rasmus Andersson · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 17:00CGYElias LindholmENAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.74 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:29NSHNick Bonino: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:16CGYTJ Brodie: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:10NSHDan Hamhuis: Holding2 min
- P2 11:27CGYGarnet Hathaway: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:27NSHRyan Hartman: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Ryan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRinaldo – Grimaldi – Gaudreau4:29
xG 0.22–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi3:29
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Jarnkrok6:18
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Watson – Salomaki – Sissons11:53
xG 0.40–0.48 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bitetto2:36
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis16:44
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Weber – Bitetto9:03
xG 0.27–0.29 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan13:01
xG 0.75–0.32 (70%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Neal – Jankowski – Mangiapane12:08
xG 0.88–0.47 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Quine – Bennett – Czarnik5:15
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Quine – Hathaway – Czarnik2:24
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProut – Kylington12:26
xG 0.85–0.29 (74%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin14:08
xG 0.64–0.61 (51%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Kylington2:50
xG 0.11–0.25 (32%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).