Skip to content
Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 12, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary

Philadelphia Flyers 5, Calgary Flames 6 (OT)

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

5

Final

Overtime

Home

Calgary Flames

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 83% of the time.

CGY winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
PHI08461401519
CGY11221021613641

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:13CGYSam BennettAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Alan Quine · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:52PHITravis SanheimAssists: Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:32CGYMark GiordanoSHAssists: Travis Hamonic, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
  4. P2 5:55PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
  5. P2 6:27PHISean CouturierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Ivan Provorov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
  6. P2 7:43PHIDale WeiseAssists: Radko Gudas, Robert Hagg · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
  7. P2 10:13CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.12 xG4–3
  8. P3 11:10PHISean CouturierSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–3
  9. P3 18:52CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk · Slap, 0.05 xG5–4
  10. P3 19:53CGYSean MonahanAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Mark Giordano · Backhand, 0.21 xG5–5
  11. OT 0:35CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–6
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 4:42CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 17:11PHIMichael Raffl: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 4:35CGYSean Monahan: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P2 9:02PHIAndrew MacDonald: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P2 11:36PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 11:36CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 18:21CGYDerek Ryan: Holding2 min
  8. P3 2:17PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 7:23PHIScott Laughton: Holding2 min
  10. P3 9:22PHIMichael Raffl: Holding2 min
  11. P3 13:02PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
46% to win54% to win
← PHI attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Jankowski won the faceoff against Couturier
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHICGY
19Shots on goal41
2.8Expected goals5.1
37Shot attempts71
23Faceoffs won31
3Power plays6
14Penalty minutes8
17Hits9
18Blocked shots12
7Giveaways16
8Takeaways13

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Philadelphia Flyers

Forward lines

  1. bestVoracek – Couturier – Raffl10:39

    xG 0.73–0.28 (73%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0

  2. Simmonds – Laughton – Patrick4:56

    xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0

  3. Weise – Varone – Lindblom4:10

    xG 0.17–0.12 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0

  4. Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny9:59

    xG 0.14–1.04 (12%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestMacDonald – Provorov11:42

    xG 0.68–0.36 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0

  2. Gostisbehere – Sanheim7:00

    xG 0.17–0.17 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0

  3. Gostisbehere – Provorov3:38

    xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0

Calgary Flames

Forward lines

  1. bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan10:59

    xG 0.44–0.12 (79%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0

  2. Bennett – Ryan – Tkachuk3:01

    xG 0.03–0.02 (61%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

  3. Quine – Hathaway – Czarnik2:34

    xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0

  4. Neal – Jankowski – Mangiapane6:09

    xG 0.03–0.62 (5%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestGiordano – Brodie13:27

    xG 0.82–0.20 (81%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1

  2. Andersson – Kylington9:00

    xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

  3. Hamonic – Hanifin12:04

    xG 0.75–0.67 (53%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 5.1 xGPHI 2.8 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 99/100 · #17 of 1271 this seasonSwing 2.85 · 11 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 0% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 83% of the time.

CGY winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).