Fri, Dec 14, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 4, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 210 | 09 | 213 | 432 |
| DET | 111 | 111 | 06 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:19OTTChris TierneyAssists: Ryan Dzingel · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 13:57OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Colin White, Mikkel Boedker · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 18:20DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Michael Rasmussen · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 12:08DETDylan LarkinAssists: Frans Nielsen, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 7:08OTTMark StoneGWGAssists: Colin White, Stefan Elliott · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–2
- P3 19:42OTTMikkel BoedkerENAssists: Chris Tierney, Thomas Chabot · Tip-in, 0.77 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:32OTTErik Burgdoerfer: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:48DETAndreas Athanasiou: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:52OTTBen Harpur: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:52DETMichael Rasmussen: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:00DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:27OTTZack Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:52DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStone – White – Tkachuk12:07
xG 1.02–0.49 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Dzingel – Batherson2:35
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Boedker – Tierney7:38
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Dzingel5:26
xG 0.09–0.39 (19%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Chabot12:13
xG 1.53–0.23 (87%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Elliott – Chabot3:31
xG 0.65–0.05 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Ceci – Chabot2:42
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Abdelkader – Nyquist – Larkin14:29
xG 0.86–0.81 (51%)attempts 22–15goals 0–0
- Glendening – Bertuzzi – Rasmussen9:35
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Vanek – Frk – de la Rose5:19
xG 0.13–0.26 (32%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Athanasiou – Ehn8:50
xG 0.32–0.88 (27%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Cholowski17:03
xG 0.95–0.69 (58%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Jensen15:52
xG 0.75–0.71 (51%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Ericsson – Hronek10:25
xG 0.09–1.22 (7%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).