Sun, Dec 16, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Arizona Coyotes 0, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 08 | 06 | 09 | 023 |
| CAR | 09 | 26 | 112 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:44CARWarren FoegeleGWGAssists: Calvin de Haan, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 13:44CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Justin Faulk, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 4:32CARSebastian AhoAssists: Calvin de Haan, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.16 xG0–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:22CARAndrei Svechnikov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:09ARIAlex Galchenyuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:25ARILawson Crouse: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:25CARBrett Pesce: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:56ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:25ARIKevin Connauton: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:29CARSebastian Aho: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:31ARIClayton Keller: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:37ARIJakob Chychrun: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:38CARDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wallmark won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKempe – Crouse – Garland6:02
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Richardson – Archibald – Galchenyuk8:09
xG 0.35–0.56 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Cousins – Schmaltz – Keller10:15
xG 0.26–0.57 (32%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
- Stepan – Panik – Fischer9:19
xG 0.31–1.07 (23%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Hjalmarsson9:16
xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Oesterle2:55
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Connauton – Chychrun2:00
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDi Giuseppe – Foegele – Bishop2:15
xG 0.35–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Williams – Wallmark – Svechnikov8:10
xG 0.45–0.18 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Martinook – Aho8:47
xG 0.45–0.23 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Di Giuseppe – Bishop – Kuokkanen8:24
xG 0.71–0.51 (58%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce14:05
xG 0.95–0.31 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- de Haan – Faulk11:47
xG 1.17–0.75 (61%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Hamilton – van Riemsdyk11:52
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).