Sun, Dec 16, 2018·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Calgary Flames 7, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 416 | 19 | 24 | 729 |
| STL | 06 | 216 | 06 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:58CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–0
- P1 10:15CGYElias LindholmSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 16:47CGYMark GiordanoPPGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk · Slap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P1 18:25CGYAlan QuineAssists: Noah Hanifin, Mark Jankowski · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–0
- P2 2:29STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Jordan Nolan, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–1
- P2 5:26CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–1
- P2 18:14STLTyler BozakAssists: Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–2
- P3 16:53CGYJohnny GaudreauENAssists: Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.58 xG6–2
- P3 18:44CGYAlan QuinePPAssists: Austin Czarnik, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.05 xG7–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:38STLPatrick Maroon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:08CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:31STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 10:42CGYJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:04STLTyler Bozak: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:20STLJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:20STLJordan Nolan: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Backlund – Tkachuk9:15
xG 0.40–0.08 (83%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Quine – Jankowski – Czarnik6:17
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Backlund – Ryan – Tkachuk2:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Neal – Gaudreau – Monahan2:05
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Kylington14:32
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie16:51
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin14:59
xG 0.63–0.72 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Perron – Bozak3:52
xG 0.35–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Tarasenko – Thomas4:08
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Steen – Schenn – Schwartz5:02
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Steen – O'Reilly – Tarasenko7:07
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Butler8:59
xG 0.62–0.20 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn6:53
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Parayko14:47
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).