Sun, Dec 16, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 4, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 010 | 19 | 38 | 427 |
| BOS | 014 | 110 | 113 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:18BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 5:18BOSSteven KampferAssists: Joakim Nordstrom, David Backes · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 5:43BUFJack EichelAssists: Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 13:21BOSTorey KrugAssists: David Krejci, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 16:29BUFJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 19:35BUFJack EichelENAssists: Sam Reinhart, Zemgus Girgensons · Snap, 0.65 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:47BUFJohan Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:33BOSJoakim Nordstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:31BUFMatt Hunwick: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 11:08BUFBrendan Guhle: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Reinhart – Eichel13:31
xG 0.67–0.54 (56%)attempts 14–11goals 3–1
- Okposo – Sheary – Mittelstadt9:20
xG 0.36–0.33 (53%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Larsson – Girgensons – Rodrigues12:35
xG 0.30–0.66 (31%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Pominville – Sobotka – Thompson9:37
xG 0.14–0.86 (14%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Dahlin10:55
xG 0.80–0.59 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Ristolainen – Dahlin2:32
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Guhle – Dahlin3:32
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Heinen – Forsbacka Karlsson10:09
xG 1.24–0.25 (83%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Krejci – Marchand – Pastrnak11:29
xG 0.80–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Acciari9:16
xG 0.37–0.07 (83%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Backes – Marchand – Cave3:02
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – McAvoy2:17
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Kampfer – Moore10:32
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Krug – Carlo15:32
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).