Mon, Dec 17, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Nashville Predators 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 115 | 210 | 00 | 334 |
| OTT | 311 | 07 | 04 | 11 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:25OTTMaxime LajoiePPAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 5:22OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Mark Stone, Colin White · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P1 19:48OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 5:37NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Ryan Ellis, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 0:46NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 6:56NSHRoman JosiAssists: Kevin Fiala, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 0:21OTTThomas ChabotGWGAssists: Ryan Dzingel · Snap, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:03NSHRoman Josi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:43OTTMark Stone: Holding2 min
- P1 17:18NSHKevin Fiala: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 4:16OTTJustin Falk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:02OTTRyan Dzingel: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:05NSHKyle Turris: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:05OTTBobby Ryan: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:09OTTMaxime Lajoie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:24NSHKevin Fiala: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:35OTTJustin Falk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Watson – Sissons9:35
xG 0.74–0.23 (76%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Jarnkrok7:07
xG 0.39–0.08 (84%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Grimaldi – Salomaki – Gaudreau7:57
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Johansen – Hartman – Fiala8:22
xG 0.06–0.39 (14%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis13:53
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 15–11goals 1–2
- Weber – Irwin10:03
xG 0.20–0.23 (47%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Ekholm18:13
xG 0.42–0.62 (40%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Pyatt – Tierney – Batherson3:04
xG 0.01–0.01 (56%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Dzingel9:26
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Ryan – Boedker – Tierney5:30
xG 0.08–0.15 (34%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Stone – White – Tkachuk10:54
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Chabot10:11
xG 0.29–0.09 (77%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Falk – Ceci2:57
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ceci – Chabot6:33
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).