Mon, Dec 17, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
New York Islanders 4, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 27 | 17 | 421 |
| COL | 011 | 112 | 08 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:20NYIJordan EberleAssists: Brock Nelson, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 2:07NYIJohnny BoychukPPGWGAssists: Ryan Pulock, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 6:45COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 18:25NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Nick Leddy, Jordan Eberle · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 17:36NYIValtteri FilppulaENAssists: Ryan Pulock · Backhand, 0.70 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:21COLMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:17COLTyson Barrie: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:33NYIRyan Pulock: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:15COLSven Andrighetto: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:23NYIJoshua Ho-Sang: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:23NYIJoshua Ho-Sang: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:55COLIan Cole: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:24NYIAnders Lee: Holding2 min
- P3 18:06NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson7:05
xG 0.27–0.40 (41%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Ho-Sang7:17
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier11:16
xG 0.22–0.35 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:01
xG 0.04–0.33 (11%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech9:40
xG 0.55–0.29 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock3:01
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Leddy – Mayfield3:04
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:12
xG 0.82–0.24 (77%)attempts 21–3goals 0–1
- Andrighetto – Compher – Jost8:41
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Wilson – Bourque – Dries3:51
xG 0.24–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto8:00
xG 0.22–0.33 (39%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Barrie10:52
xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Nemeth – Zadorov7:38
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Barrie – Girard2:12
xG 0.24–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).