Tue, Dec 18, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 0, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 06 | 012 | 024 |
| DAL | 114 | 112 | 02 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:15DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alexander Radulov · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 17:17DALRadek FaksaAssists: Martin Hanzal, Tyler Pitlick · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:11DALTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:34CGYAlan Quine: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:31DALBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:53CGYGarnet Hathaway: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:32DALRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:12DALMattias Janmark: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Monahan – Ryan3:24
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Backlund – Lindholm – Tkachuk3:56
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Rychel – Czarnik2:02
xG 0.02–0.10 (20%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan7:46
xG 0.02–0.20 (11%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Prout – Andersson2:09
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin15:42
xG 0.43–0.64 (41%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Andersson – Kylington7:00
xG 0.00–0.48 (0%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Janmark – Dickinson7:47
xG 0.41–0.04 (91%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Radulov – Shore – Nichushkin2:29
xG 0.35–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Pitlick – Faksa7:36
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov2:20
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Bayreuther11:41
xG 0.82–0.14 (86%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Bayreuther – Heiskanen2:38
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Fedun – Hanley10:26
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).