Tue, Dec 18, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
New York Islanders 3, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 114 | 213 | 05 | 332 |
| ARI | 110 | 011 | 016 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:14ARIMario KempeAssists: Alex Goligoski, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 17:04NYIJoshua Ho-SangAssists: Ryan Pulock, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 3:38NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 8:29NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:22ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:34NYICal Clutterbuck: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:15ARILawson Crouse: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:15NYIScott Mayfield: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:26NYIValtteri Filppula: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:22ARIChristian Fischer: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:51NYIMathew Barzal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cousins won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Komarov – Ho-Sang11:22
xG 0.55–0.03 (95%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson11:06
xG 1.22–0.72 (63%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:55
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier10:22
xG 0.43–0.80 (35%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Mayfield12:47
xG 0.59–0.20 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock16:26
xG 1.06–1.18 (47%)attempts 19–25goals 1–1
- Boychuk – Leddy11:38
xG 0.57–0.85 (40%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Panik – Archibald10:19
xG 0.67–0.31 (68%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Kempe – Cousins – Crouse7:14
xG 0.16–0.03 (86%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Stepan – Galchenyuk – Fischer10:02
xG 0.53–0.48 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- Schmaltz – Garland – Keller9:25
xG 0.56–1.04 (35%)attempts 5–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun3:45
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Hjalmarsson – Chychrun8:53
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Chychrun3:36
xG 0.18–0.24 (42%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).